Starting in 1929, the world would witness one of the
greatest economic downturns ever recorded. Originating in
the United States, the Great Depression began in late
October with an unprecedented stock market crash. How could
a twentieth century economy nearly collapse? The Great
Depression provides an example of falling markets and
widespread poverty. However, one significant outlier existed
in the market at the time: gold industry. Exemplified
through a brief analysis of Homestake Mining, gold industry
stocks experienced extraordinary gains in share price and
dividend payouts.
During the 1920s, the United States experienced a remarkably
bullish equity market. However, gold stocks, in general,
were not participants; instead, they underwent a downward
trend. Gold companies had been afflicted by a bearish market
since the late 1880s. This would all change with the onset
of the Great Depression. Gold stockswould prove to thrive
during this global economic slowdown. Our central
illustration will focus on the Homestake Mining Company, one
of the world’s largest gold producers in the early twentieth
century.
Homestake’s main operation was in the heartland of the
United States, mining gold from the hills of South Dakota.
Most gold sector historians agree that Homestake serves as a
fair representation for the entire gold mining industry at
the time. One must note that the U.S. government passed the
Gold Standard Act in 1900 which placed the entire country on
the gold standard, creating a fixed exchange rate with all
other countries whose currencies were fixed to the gold
price. With a fixed gold price, gold stocks fluctuated
around production levels, growth rates, cash costs, and net
asset value. Changes in the gold price were unable to affect
the stock price when the country entered the Great
Depression.
Homestake stock sold for about $65 per share in 1929. By
1933, the average stock price for Homestake was around $370.
This represents a gain of more than 450% over the course of
four years. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 89% over
the three years between its 1929 peak to its 1932 bottom.
Not only did stock prices increase for Homestake, but
dividends also skyrocketed. In 1929, Homestake paid
dividends of about $7 per share. By 1935, dividends had
increased to $56, a staggering rate of 800% over six years.
During these deflationary times, gold stocks not only
retained their values but provided significant returns for
investors.
Deflation, the underlying crisis during the Great
Depression, results in heightened gold stock prices. The
reason why is that deflation diluted the value of the U.S.
dollar while the price of gold was fixed by the government.
While some would argue that this fixed gold price ensured
the rise for gold stock prices, this fallacy is simple to
debunk by examining the positive effects on gold stocks
after the removal of the gold standard in 1971. Even though
the gold price was no longer fixed, gold stocks performed
normally. Interestingly, Congress passed the Gold Reserve
Act of 1934 and gave the government permanent title to all
gold assets. Most importantly, it increased the gold price
to $35 and further devalued the dollar. This certainly
contributed to the spike in Homestake’s share price from
1934 to 1935.
Looking forward, gold stocks are very promising under the
current market as deflation is likely. Should deflation
enter the 2009 economic crisis, gold stocks will be set to
perform at record highs. Gold prices would cross the $1000
barrier and further elevate gold company shares. The
magnitude could be far greater than what was witnessed
during the Great Depression when Homestake had annualized
gains of more than 100%. Gold will no longer be seen as a
placeholder for value, but as an investment for an uncertain
future.
Starting in 1929, the world would witness one of the
greatest economic downturns ever recorded. Originating in
the United States, the Great Depression began in late
October with an unprecedented stock market crash. This
article details gold price and gold stocks during the Great
Depression.
Mail this post
Posted under Finance
This post was written by MoMoney on October 20, 2009